Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District Is Finally Competitive. What LGBTQ+ Voters Need to Know. The race to replace Andy Barr is closer than anyone expected.
Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr has been unbeatable in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District for seven election cycles, defeating Democratic opponents and defending the GOP’s hold on the district. With Barr easily winning the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell, Barr’s congressional seat, which includes Lexington, Frankfort, and Richmond, is now up for grabs. And for the first time in over a decade, it isn’t guaranteed to stay red.
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In November, Kentucky’s 6th will have a choice between Navy veteran, former legislative director to Gov. Andy Beshear, and most recently, Assistant United States Attorney, Democrat Zach Dembo, and former state senator and, most recently, Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health, Republican Ralph Alvarado.
While Barr’s winning streak in the 6th was unmatched, this new matchup has drawn the attention of high-profile political players on both sides.
Dembo has been endorsed by Beshear, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood of Illinois, the National Education Association, End Citizens United, and several other statewide politicians, national figures, and groups.
On the other side, Alvarado has the backing of President Donald Trump among other Republican leaders. Recent polling puts the two in a tight race. A June 24-28 survey conducted by GQR and commissioned by the Dembo campaign tracks Alvarado leading by just 3%. Andy Barr won the district by 26 points in 2024.
For progressive Kentuckians, this congressional race comes with surprising optimism.
“It’s a rare opportunity that a congressional seat outside of the third is competitive,” said Chris Hartman, executive director of the Fairness Campaign, an LGBTQ+ advocacy organization based in the state. “So every voice is going to matter, and every vote is going to matter in that race.”
The Fairness Campaign has not made an endorsement in the race, and its political action committee, C-FAIR, focuses on local races.
Democratic strategists attribute the race’s competitive nature in part to the candidate that Dembo is, and who he is not.
“He doesn’t have a record that anybody can shoot at as far as votes are taken,” said Jared Smith, a Kentucky-based democratic consultant and partner at Piper and Smith. “I think that for people who normally wouldn’t look at a Democratic candidate, especially some of the quality ones that have run in the past, this is a different story.”
Smith also noted that Dembo is a “prolific fundraiser.” After just 6 months on the campaign trail, Dembo’s campaign recorded over $550,000 in contributions. For comparison, Barr’s most recent general election opponent, Randy Cravens, raised just $2,500 in 2024 ahead of the Democratic primary.
While Dembo has not held elected office himself, his Republican opponent has a track record that voters can point to both in and out of state. Alvarado served as a member of the Kentucky State Senate from 2015 until 2023, when he resigned to take a new role as the commissioner for the Tennessee Department of Health.
In this position, Alvarado, who is a physician, quickly created a reputation for denying funding for HIV-related services. Within days of his time in Tennessee, Alvarado led the state to officially reject a CDC grant that provided millions of dollars to HIV prevention and care programs. A move that worries LGBTQ+ Kentuckians.
“I’m incredibly concerned about Ralph Alvarado’s record around HIV services, around healthcare access and around LGBTQ+ issues and laws and policies that impact the queer community,” said Hartman. “Certainly former Sen. Alvarado was never a vote in favor of LGBTQ issues in the Kentucky General Assembly.”
Democratic strategists imagine that Kentucky’s 6th could be a race that represents a reflection of the president’s low approval rating, which currently sits at around 38%.
“The referendum on the president is all midterms are,” said Smith. “This is a president that ran a campaign on three things. No new wars, prosecute the Epstein files, and bring down the cost of living. And he has done the opposite of all three of those things.”
As voters approach the general election in November, Dembo continues to gain momentum with high-profile supporters who have themselves performed well in the 6th. Democrat Beshear, who endorsed Dembo in May, won the district by about 20 points in 2023.
“I got to work closely with Zach Dembo when he was in my administration, and I assure you he’s the kind of person that will lead with conviction, character, and competence,” Beshear said in his endorsement statement.
Kentucky’s 6th joins a growing list of races that could flip for the first time in years. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is tracking 46 “districts in play” this cycle, including Kentucky’s 6th. Democratic strategists remain hopeful that blue candidates will have a special edge this cycle.
“It’s a unique moment. If anybody tells you that there’s not going to be a blue wave in the fall, they’re not being truthful with you,” said Smith.
