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Kentucky’s Competing Laws Make a Senate Vacancy Anything But Simple

Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell’s extended hospital stay has sparked more than conspiracy theories and proof-of-life memes. It’s raised a question Kentucky politicians and officials are grappling with: If a vacancy were to occur, who decides who will represent Kentucky in the U.S. Senate

McConnell, 84, has not made a public appearance since being hospitalized on June 14 following what he described in a statement as a fall that left him “briefly unconscious.” “My doctors have confirmed that I didn’t break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke. I don’t have any tumors or hemorrhages,” he said. His office published additional statements in late July saying he is still having “intense physical therapy.”

While his office has issued assurances that McConnell is stable and pushing through a rigorous regimen of physical therapy, two recently released bedside photos with his wife Elaine Chao have been mocked for their “staged” vibes, fueling speculation ranging from claims that the senator is on life support to suggestions that he is purposely convalescing to avoid dealing with the SAVE Act. For some, his absence at Fancy Farm was the last straw, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has been leading the charge among Democrats to call for the senator’s resignation. Were he to do so, what follows isn’t straightforward.

RELATED: What Can a Governor Do If a Sitting Senator Disappears?

“It’s actually pretty complicated,” Joshua A. Douglas, a professor and associate dean for research at the University of Kentucky Rosenberg College of Law, told Queer Kentucky. “And I think there’s a decent chance the issue could end up in the courts.”

To be clear, McConnell may be absent from the Senate floor, but he still has the seat — though senators are not permitted to vote when absent. McConnell has missed 46 votes since being hospitalized, and the empty chair has generated interest in an unresolved constitutional question involving Kentucky law and competing U.S. constitutional provisions.

Wielding a vote, a senator can affect federal legislation like the Equality Act, approve funding for programs including HIV prevention and treatment, and influence judicial confirmations that could be highly consequential for LGBTQ+ rights, such as marriage equality and trans protections.

In Kentucky, competing state laws are creating uncertainty about how a vacancy would be filled, should one arise — typically, this would happen as a result of death, resignation or expulsion from the Senate.

“Before 2024, Kentucky law allowed the governor to appoint a successor if there is a vacancy from a list of three people provided by the outgoing senator’s party,” explained Douglas. “But the legislature passed a new law in 2024, House Bill 622, that takes away the governor’s authority to fill a vacancy.”

That bill had been introduced in the wake of McConnell’s February 28, 2024, announcement that he would step down as Senate Republican leader, while serving the remainder of his term. While the bill was winding its way through Kentucky’s General Assembly, Beshear, a Democrat, vetoed it, but Kentucky’s GOP-controlled House and Senate overrode the veto.

“So, if there is a vacancy, the governor would call a special election,” said Douglas.

But it’s tricky.

RELATED: Sorry, Thomas Massie Is Not Running for McConnell’s Senate Seat

“The Kentucky Constitution Section 152 seems to contradict this,” Douglas told Queer Kentucky, quoting the provision’s language: “Vacancies in all offices for the state at large, or for districts larger than a county, shall be filled by appointment of the governor.”

And it gets more complicated when the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is taken into account. It establishes a federal framework, but how that framework interacts with Kentucky’s constitution and current statute is where things get murky.

The amendment permits a governor to make a temporary appointment until the vacancy is filled by election, if state law allows such appointments. Most states permit a governor to make a temporary appointment as per the 17th Amendment, and Kentucky law allowed this for about 80 years, until 2021, when McConnell and fellow Republicans backed a bill that was passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, which restricted how Beshear might fill a vacancy.

Per Kentucky’s current statute (HB 622), that would involve a special election. The person would only serve for the remainder of the current term, said Douglas. There would still be a regular election for the term that starts January 3, 2027, when the next U.S. Congress begins.

“Hence the contradiction,” he said, “The 17th Amendment says the legislature may authorize the governor to appoint a temporary replacement, the Kentucky Constitution says the governor appoints one, and the Kentucky legislature now says there must be a special election after the new law.”

Timing adds another layer of uncertainty.

While the current law says that there is a 63-day deadline for notice and a 56-day deadline for filing, Douglas said he doesn’t see a deadline requirement for the governor to call the special election.

“I don’t see anything in the law providing a deadline for when the Governor must call the special election. But the 63-day notice and 56-day deadline for filing certainly impacts this all.”

Considering that November 3 is the scheduled general election day to determine who will replace McConnell at the end of his term, Beshear would have to issue a “proclamation” that sheriffs receive by September 1. County sheriffs are responsible for giving public notice of elections. So Candidates would need to file by September 8 if the special election were to be held by November 3.

If those deadlines are not met, it’s unclear when the special election would be held to fill the remainder of McConnell’s term, should the seat become vacant. That raises the question as to whether the special election could be held on or after the scheduled general election on November 3 to determine who serves the new six-year Senate term starting January 2027.

RELATED: Mitch McConnell’s Health: Why Congress Owes You Nothing

All things considered, given the latest change in current law enacted by Republican legislators in 2024 (HB 622), the most likely outcome would be a special election with a good chance the matter gets taken up by the Kentucky court system – potentially working its way from Circuit Court to Kentucky Court of Appeals to the Supreme Court of Kentucky – to address the question as to whether the governor has the constitutional authority or obligation to make a temporary appointment.

As for working its way up to SCOTUS? It probably won’t reach the U.S. Supreme Court, because it’s really a matter of Kentucky constitutional law, and also, the 17th Amendment permits a state legislature (governor) to make a temporary appointment – but doesn’t require it.

With Republicans holding a narrow majority of 53-47, even a temporary vacancy – or a Democrat appointee – could affect legislation and political dynamics for the whole country. While Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are on course to challenge each other in the general election for McConnell’s seat, it’s not a given that they would be selected to face off against each other in a special election. That uncertainty of timing, authority, and eventually who is on the ballot is probably going to remain unresolved until McConnell’s seat becomes vacant or his term simply ends. 

Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell’s extended hospital stay has sparked more than conspiracy theories and proof-of-life memes. It’s raised a question Kentucky politicians and officials are grappling with: If a vacancy were to occur, who decides who will represent Kentucky in the U.S. Senate

McConnell, 84, has not made a public appearance since being hospitalized on June 14 following what he described in a statement as a fall that left him “briefly unconscious.” “My doctors have confirmed that I didn’t break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn’t have a heart attack or a stroke. I don’t have any tumors or hemorrhages,” he said. His office published additional statements in late July saying he is still having “intense physical therapy.”

While his office has issued assurances that McConnell is stable and pushing through a rigorous regimen of physical therapy, two recently released bedside photos with his wife Elaine Chao have been mocked for their “staged” vibes, fueling speculation ranging from claims that the senator is on life support to suggestions that he is purposely convalescing to avoid dealing with the SAVE Act. For some, his absence at Fancy Farm was the last straw, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has been leading the charge among Democrats to call for the senator’s resignation. Were he to do so, what follows isn’t straightforward.

RELATED: What Can a Governor Do If a Sitting Senator Disappears?

“It’s actually pretty complicated,” Joshua A. Douglas, a professor and associate dean for research at the University of Kentucky Rosenberg College of Law, told Queer Kentucky. “And I think there’s a decent chance the issue could end up in the courts.”

To be clear, McConnell may be absent from the Senate floor, but he still has the seat — though senators are not permitted to vote when absent. McConnell has missed 46 votes since being hospitalized, and the empty chair has generated interest in an unresolved constitutional question involving Kentucky law and competing U.S. constitutional provisions.

Wielding a vote, a senator can affect federal legislation like the Equality Act, approve funding for programs including HIV prevention and treatment, and influence judicial confirmations that could be highly consequential for LGBTQ+ rights, such as marriage equality and trans protections.

In Kentucky, competing state laws are creating uncertainty about how a vacancy would be filled, should one arise — typically, this would happen as a result of death, resignation or expulsion from the Senate.

“Before 2024, Kentucky law allowed the governor to appoint a successor if there is a vacancy from a list of three people provided by the outgoing senator’s party,” explained Douglas. “But the legislature passed a new law in 2024, House Bill 622, that takes away the governor’s authority to fill a vacancy.”

That bill had been introduced in the wake of McConnell’s February 28, 2024, announcement that he would step down as Senate Republican leader, while serving the remainder of his term. While the bill was winding its way through Kentucky’s General Assembly, Beshear, a Democrat, vetoed it, but Kentucky’s GOP-controlled House and Senate overrode the veto.

“So, if there is a vacancy, the governor would call a special election,” said Douglas.

But it’s tricky.

RELATED: Sorry, Thomas Massie Is Not Running for McConnell’s Senate Seat

“The Kentucky Constitution Section 152 seems to contradict this,” Douglas told Queer Kentucky, quoting the provision’s language: “Vacancies in all offices for the state at large, or for districts larger than a county, shall be filled by appointment of the governor.”

And it gets more complicated when the 17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is taken into account. It establishes a federal framework, but how that framework interacts with Kentucky’s constitution and current statute is where things get murky.

The amendment permits a governor to make a temporary appointment until the vacancy is filled by election, if state law allows such appointments. Most states permit a governor to make a temporary appointment as per the 17th Amendment, and Kentucky law allowed this for about 80 years, until 2021, when McConnell and fellow Republicans backed a bill that was passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, which restricted how Beshear might fill a vacancy.

Per Kentucky’s current statute (HB 622), that would involve a special election. The person would only serve for the remainder of the current term, said Douglas. There would still be a regular election for the term that starts January 3, 2027, when the next U.S. Congress begins.

“Hence the contradiction,” he said, “The 17th Amendment says the legislature may authorize the governor to appoint a temporary replacement, the Kentucky Constitution says the governor appoints one, and the Kentucky legislature now says there must be a special election after the new law.”

Timing adds another layer of uncertainty.

While the current law says that there is a 63-day deadline for notice and a 56-day deadline for filing, Douglas said he doesn’t see a deadline requirement for the governor to call the special election.

“I don’t see anything in the law providing a deadline for when the Governor must call the special election. But the 63-day notice and 56-day deadline for filing certainly impacts this all.”

Considering that November 3 is the scheduled general election day to determine who will replace McConnell at the end of his term, Beshear would have to issue a “proclamation” that sheriffs receive by September 1. County sheriffs are responsible for giving public notice of elections. So Candidates would need to file by September 8 if the special election were to be held by November 3.

If those deadlines are not met, it’s unclear when the special election would be held to fill the remainder of McConnell’s term, should the seat become vacant. That raises the question as to whether the special election could be held on or after the scheduled general election on November 3 to determine who serves the new six-year Senate term starting January 2027.

RELATED: Mitch McConnell’s Health: Why Congress Owes You Nothing

All things considered, given the latest change in current law enacted by Republican legislators in 2024 (HB 622), the most likely outcome would be a special election with a good chance the matter gets taken up by the Kentucky court system – potentially working its way from Circuit Court to Kentucky Court of Appeals to the Supreme Court of Kentucky – to address the question as to whether the governor has the constitutional authority or obligation to make a temporary appointment.

As for working its way up to SCOTUS? It probably won’t reach the U.S. Supreme Court, because it’s really a matter of Kentucky constitutional law, and also, the 17th Amendment permits a state legislature (governor) to make a temporary appointment – but doesn’t require it.

With Republicans holding a narrow majority of 53-47, even a temporary vacancy – or a Democrat appointee – could affect legislation and political dynamics for the whole country. While Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are on course to challenge each other in the general election for McConnell’s seat, it’s not a given that they would be selected to face off against each other in a special election. That uncertainty of timing, authority, and eventually who is on the ballot is probably going to remain unresolved until McConnell’s seat becomes vacant or his term simply ends. 

Senator Mitch McConnell, seated, smiles alongside his wife, former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao, who stands beside him with her hand on his shoulder in an office setting

Mitch McConnell’s Health: Why Congress Owes You Nothing

Where is Mitch? Who is my senator right now? Is he even alive?

Following a rather prolonged absence from his job, questions arose as to the whereabouts (and breathing status) of the senior senator from Kentucky, Mitch McConnell.

The questions themselves were not unfounded. Given his age, 84, and his numerous lost battles with gravity, coupled with his on-air moments of freezes that earned the moniker “Glitch McConnell”, voters in the Commonwealth of Kentucky were curious what is up, and what information is owed to us in situations like this?

As people around the country joined in, the short and probably infuriating answer to what information was owed is: Nothing at all.

Unlike the presidency, which operates under strict succession protocols and medical reporting, Congress functions under a veil of legally protected secrecy. Getting a straight answer when a member goes missing in action isn’t just difficult—the system was explicitly engineered that way.

In comparison, if the President undergoes a routine procedure under anesthesia, the 25th Amendment triggers a formal, temporary transfer of executive power to the vice president. The White House physician releases a detailed medical memo, and the public is kept informed.

For a sitting United States Senator or Representative, no such accountability exists.

Members of Congress are independent constitutional officers under Article I of the U.S. Constitution. In other words, members of Congress are independent contractors of our votes. They are Uber drivers for a republic democracy.

Since they are not executive employees, no similar medical mandates exist for health disclosures. There is no statute, House rule, or Senate regulation forcing a legislator to disclose hospital stays, medical diagnoses, or cognitive declines.

And, since the people who elect them are their technical bosses, remember Uber, neither the Speaker of the House nor the Senate Majority Leader has the constitutional authority to declare a colleague “incapacitated.” A member is either sworn in or the seat is vacant—there is no formal “sick leave.” If called to work, taking a vote on the Capitol floor or in committee, an absence just amounts to a missed vote. Similar to someone who missed a flight, got stuck in traffic, or had a stomach ache, it is just business as usual.

Unless a member voluntarily resigns, dies, or faces an extraordinary two-thirds expulsion vote by their peers (see George Santos…diva), the seat remains theirs—even if it sits empty for months while constituents go completely unrepresented.

When a seat finally becomes vacant, federalism, our lovely split function of government, places the rules into two wildly different systems.

The House of Representatives is fairly straightforward. Article I, Section 2 mandates that House vacancies must be filled through special elections called by the state’s governor. Governors cannot hand-pick a temporary replacement. If a representative steps down or passes away, that congressional district simply goes without a voice until voters go to the polls.

The Senate, where the Mitch of it all arises, is a little, or, lot more confusing. Under the 17th Amendment, state legislatures decide how Senate vacancies are handled. Most delegate temporary appointment power to their governor, but state laws vary wildly:

Governors in states like California or New York have unrestricted appointments and can immediately appoint anyone of their choosing to fill the seat until the next general election. Strangely enough, Kentucky’s process has seen a pretty recent development. In 2024, Kentucky lawmakers passed House Bill 622 that took away the Governor’s power to appoint a temporary replacement. Under the revised law, the Governor issues a proclamation calling an election, with the winner serving the remainder of the unexpired term.

Further complicating matters, Section 152 of the Kentucky Constitution authorizes the Governor to appoint a replacement. The 17th Amendment already says that state legislatures can determine how this issue is handled, which conflicts with the state Constitution. Adherence to the 2024 law may seem to follow the 17th Amendment, but how does that fit within the framework of the state Constitution?

Is there a reason for the differing succession laws and little to no requirement for transparency? Due to the openness of the federal law (17th Amendment), state legislatures routinely manipulate succession laws right before an aging or ill senator steps down to favor their own party, see the 2024 bill. State control creates deep inequality: A constituent in one state might get an appointed senator within days, while a constituent in a neighboring state endured a half-year vacancy awaiting a special election.

The absence of clarity in some states and the lack of time to prepare for death or incapacitation has actually moved the needle of progress. Before modern primary elections, state party bosses solved sudden Senate vacancies using a cynical political convention known as the “Widow’s Succession.” Governors who wanted to avoid bloody primary fights over a vacant seat would appoint the deceased senator’s widow. The widow was expected to act as a quiet “placeholder”—keeping the chair warm, voting the party line, and stepping aside when the next official election arrived. This patronizing political trick unintentionally cracked open the door for women in the federal government.

In 1922, the United States had our first female senator. As a publicity stunt to appeal to the newly allowed-to-vote women, Rebecca Latimer Felton was appointed after the death of Sen. Thomas E. Watson. She was sworn in and served for a whopping 24 hours before her elected male successor took over—becoming the first woman in the U.S. Senate.

But getting back to the current Mitch predicament, none of these succession issues matter if the “proof of life” photo shared along with a statement purporting to assuage concerns and rumors, are to be believed.

Therein lies the issue:Many question why nothing has come out besides that photo and limited information. The act itself has done little to tamp down speculation, and the public is clamoring for something more. The public struggle to get clear information about absent leaders boils down to a structural conflict: individual constitutional privacy vs. democratic accountability.

Because the U.S. Constitution provides no mandate for medical transparency in Congress, disclosures remain entirely voluntary. Combined with 50 distinct state succession laws, the system inherently shields politicians—leaving constituents guessing until an official resignation occurs or an empty seat forces the government’s hand.

At the core of the issue is a fundamental clash of rights. While voters naturally expect transparency from those elected to represent them, members of Congress are individually protected by federal privacy laws like HIPAA. Because there is no statutory mandate or constitutional requirement forcing federal legislators to publish personal medical logs or report extended hospitalizations, any updates released to the public are purely voluntary.

Politically, the incentives are overwhelmingly aligned toward silence. A lawmaker’s power in Washington relies heavily on perceived strength, committee seniority, and vote counts. Admitting to a severe illness or long-term cognitive decline can instantly trigger primary challenges, provoke calls for resignation, or jeopardize their party’s tight legislative margins. As a result, congressional communications staff routinely resort to vague press statements or prolonged silence, framing absences as routine rest rather than significant incapacity.

Kentuckians demand answers. Americans demand answers. Unfortunately, within our political system, no answers are owed to either.

Rep. Thomas Massie speaks at a podium during a congressional event

Sorry, Thomas Massie Is Not Running for McConnell’s Senate Seat

Massie, who recently lost his Republican primary, said he wasn’t interested in “the same circus with different monkeys.”

Rep. Thomas Massie has shut down speculation that he’d seek a Senate seat if Sen. Mitch McConnell were to leave office early, telling an interviewer he’d rather stay exactly where he is.

In a recent interview, Kentucky Republican U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie shut down any notion that he’d seek U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat if he were to leave office early.

“Not interested,” Massie told a TMZ reporter in Washington, D.C., on Capitol Hill. 

He explained that if a special election is called for McConnell’s U.S. Senate seat, he would not run. 

He told the reporter, explaining Kentucky’s Senate replacement law, “What people need to know is there’s only a special election for his unfulfilled term, which would go till January.”

That means the winner of the special election required to be held if McConnell leaves office before August 3 would just serve out the last few months of his term. 

“Even though my sentence got commuted, I still have to spend six more months in this chair,” Massie said.

Related: Gov. Andy Beshear demands answers about McConnell and his health amid hospitalization

The reporter then said the Senate might just be “a different prison cell” to which Massie did not disagree.

Massie lost the Republican House primary for Kentucky’s fourth congressional district in May to Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL who was recruited to run by President Donald Trump. Massie got caught in Trump’s crosshairs after breaking with the president several times, including helping force out the Epstein files as well as being outspoken against the war on Iran. 

He told the reporter that the clearest reason for wanting to stay in the House was the procedural tool he used to force the Epstein files out. 

“The problem with being in the Senate is they don’t have a discharge petition, and that’s how I got the Epstein Files Transparency Act passed,” he explained. 

In the House, the discharge petition allows members to force a floor vote over leadership’s objections since the leadership is who normally sets the agenda.

Giving that up, Massie said, would mean he would be trading what he says is real influence for a seat among colleagues he wasn’t necessarily eager to join.

“I’d have to really consider giving up the power that we have here in the People’s House to go over there and serve with a bunch of geriatric, you know, folks that should be in nursing homes,” he said, referencing the age of many senators. In the Senate, the average age is 65. Newsweek notes that over a third of senators are 70 or older. 

Asked again about the Senate, Massie gave a direct response: “Not interested,” he said. 

Pressed again by the reporter, he added, “Not really. It’s the same circus with different monkeys.”

 

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